Calendar of Events


Dec 5, 2018 at 1:00 pm

Division of Biostatistics Seminar Series hosts Adrian Raftery, PhD


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published climate change projections to 2100, giving likely ranges of global temperature increase for each of four possible scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. We develop a probabilistic forecast of carbon emissions to 2100, using a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity, which expresses carbon emissions as a product of population, GDP per capita and carbon intensity (carbon per unit of GDP). We use the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries, based on methods from our group, and develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for GDP per capita and carbon intensity in most countries. In contrast with opinion-based scenarios, our findings are statistically based using data for 1960–2010. We find that our likely range (90% interval) for cumulative carbon emissions to 2100 includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the lowest or highest ones. We combine our results with the ensemble of climate models used by the IPCC to obtain a predictive distribution of global temperature increase to 2100. This is joint work with Dargan Frierson (UW Atmospheric Science), Richard Startz (UCSB Economics), Alec Zimmer (Upstart), and Peiran Liu (UW Statistics).

Event Website

Date and Time

Dec 5, 2018 at 1:00 pm


Liebow Auditorium, Biomedical Sciences Building, School of Medicine Campus

Event Registration

Registration is not required for this event.

Event Fee



Melody Bazyar    8582462595


Faculty, Staff, Students

Event Host

The Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics in the Department of Family Medicine and Public Health

Event Category

Talks and Lectures