Against the backdrop of China’s post-1978 economic transformation, recent challenges such as COVID-19 have prompted speculations about rising popular pessimism regarding inequalities and opportunities to get ahead. This study compares findings from three new nationally representative surveys conducted in 2023 with three earlier surveys from 2004, 2009, and 2014. Results reveal a significant attitudinal shift, with 2023 respondents expressing markedly more critical views about the fairness of current inequality patterns. Respondents in the 2023 surveys increasingly attribute poverty and wealth to structural factors like unequal opportunities rather than to variations in merit. Respondents also reported lower expectations for income growth compared with the earlier surveys. While not indicating imminent threats to political stability, such trends suggest that China’s leaders will likely face increasing skepticism and even critical popular responses as they try to mobilize their citizens to confront the serious challenges that China faces in coming years.

Speakers:

Scott Rozelle holds the Helen Farnsworth Endowed Professorship at Stanford University and is Senior Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) for International Studies and is Co-Director of the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). Professor Rozelle, a development economist with a Ph.D. from Cornell University, has worked on the economics of rural China for nearly 40 years. Currently, his work focuses on human capital and China’s future growth and development, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education, including early childhood development. 

Martin King Whyte is John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Sociology, Emeritus, at Harvard University.  He previously taught at the University of Michigan and at George Washington University.  He specializes in the study of grass roots social organization and social change in the People’s Republic of China in both the Mao and reform eras.  Since 2000 he has been directing survey projects in China to examine how ordinary citizens view the very high levels of income inequality in that society.

Moderator:

Victor Shih, Director, 21st Century China Center; Ho Miu Lam Chair Professor in China and Pacific Relations, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy