In recent years, numerous analysts have warned of an increasing risk of war in the Taiwan Strait. Others, however, have argued that military conflict remains unlikely and that the risk of war should not be over-hyped.  In this talk, Scott Kastner will outline a framework through which to assess the prospects for military conflict between China and Taiwan. Outlining several causal pathways through which a Taiwan Strait conflict could occur, and then assessing how broad trends in China-Taiwan-U.S. relations are affecting the likelihood of these different scenarios, Kastner’s talk will provide insight into one of the key geopolitical hotspots of our time, with policy suggestions for how actors in Beijing, Taipei and Washington could mitigate the risks of war in the Taiwan Strait.

Speaker:

• Scott L. Kastner, Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park

Moderator:

• Tai Ming Cheung, UC San Diego

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This hybrid lecture series is organized by the 21st Century China Center at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. For more information on China activities, as well as recordings of previous webinars, please visit china.ucsd.edu.

Bio: 

Scott L. Kastner is a professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park.  He graduated from Cornell University and received his Ph.D. in political science from the UC San Diego.  His books include “Political Conflict and Economic Interdependence across the Taiwan Strait and Beyond,” “China’s Strategic Multilateralism: Investing in Global Governance” and “War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait.”